UFC 264

This weekend the octagon returns to the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 264, which will be headlined by the trilogy fight of Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier. Earlier this year, Poirier beat McGregor via TKO in the second round after a series of calf kicks hindered the Irish superstar's movement and set up for the punches that led to the referee stoppage. The dominant victory avenges a loss from just over six years ago when Conor stopped Poirier with punches in under two minutes in the first round at UFC 178.

The brash Irishman is still the UFC's top draw and along with that every fight is deemed a high profile event. That said, Conor hasn't fought much in the past few years, further emphasizing when he actually competes inside the octagon. That wouldn't be a problem if he wouldn't have lost some of those major fights. He's 1-2 in  his last three bouts with the win being a 40-second bout against an always tough, but aging Donald Cerrone last January. As trivial as two losses might sound, the question remains, can Conor McGregor still be a competitive fighter?

If I had to guess, I'd say the skepticism around McGregor's ability to win against the top competition is based on the fact that of those two recent defeats, Khabib and Poirier dominated him in their respective bouts. All due respect to Cerrone, he was one of the most entertaining fighters in the history of the organization and will rightfully be inducted in the UFC Hall of Fame in the future, but he wasn't in his prime when he fought McGregor. However, Khabib and Poirier are considered the top level in the 155 LBS division, and they beat him decisively. The combination of those defeats along with the outside of the cage incidents, including an arrest for punching an elderly man in a bar, fueled speculation about his status in combat sports. He fought Floyd Mayweather for a rumored $100 million so maybe the motivation isn't there for him to be a fighter.

Clearly, the Poirier that McGregor fought in late-2014 isn't the same Poirier that won via TKO in early-2021. Poirier, a jiu-jitsu black belt, garnered the majority of his career victories with punches, but has the skill set of a well-rounded competitor and has the cardio to make it to the score cards. In some ways with a record of 27-6-1, he's somewhat of a journeyman because he would string together a series of wins before he would lose a key fight that might've been his chance to truly jump to the next level. A prime example of this was the four-fight win streak he was on before he challenged Khabib Nurmagomedov for the Light Heavyweight championship in September 2019 and lost via submission in the third round. Granted, Khabib retired undefeated, but the point being that Poirier didn't get the signature win to get him to the championship level. Still, it's obvious that he has evolved as a fighter over the course of his career and it's very possible that at 32, he might just be in the prime years of his career to apply his experience to improve his technique to reach his full potential as an athlete.

As for the main event of UFC 264, there's no doubt that Conor McGregor is a dynamic striker with knockout power, but among all the hype with his charismatic presentation is the reality that he's mostly a one-dimensional fighter. Outside of the TKO loss earlier this year, McGregor's other four defeats are all via submission. He's not totally helpless on the ground, but he can't grapple with the top level submission specialist either. In fact, I'd say if the fight goes to the ground, the odds are that Poirier could secure a submission for the win. If anything, McGregor has one or two rounds to try to land the power punches because if Poirier has the chance to set up for a take down, it could lead to the conclusion of the fight. That said, as far as a winner, I have to pick Dustin Poirier, simply based on the result of their most recent fight. It's acknowledged that Conor's chances to win are based on his ability to punch, but in their last bout, Poirier was actually the better striker so outside of an early KO, McGregor's odds appear slim.

Would another defeat be the conclusion of Conor McGregor's run as the top star of the UFC?

Actually, no, there would still be enough sizzle around his brash persona to generate revenue, but it would translate to a different dynamic for his career. Another defeat would more or less finish his tenure as a competitive fighter in the division as far as a way to determine the best 155 LBS fighter in the company. However, it would still remain a draw purely based on entertainment value for at least two more key fighters. Despite a one-sided loss to Leon Edwards recently, Nate Diaz has a thrilling moment in the bout where he almost made the comeback to win the fight, endearing him even more to the fans. There's money on the table in a McGregor/Diaz fight for everyone involved. McGregor is all about the cash, and Diaz is only going to fight for the right price so it would be a safe bet that the contest will eventually get signed. Another entertainment-based bout is almost too natural not to put on pay-per-view, as McGregor vs. Jorge Masvidal would be a major draw for the general public. The bottom line is, another defeat won't finish McGregor's stardom, but it would definitely be an indication that his career will be more about the sizzle of entertainment than the competition of the best fighters in the division.