Will MJF return?

Aside from the controversy of the CM Punk promo, specifically the rumors that he went off-script when he mentioned Adam Page in an attempt to make the former All Elite Wrestling champion look weak on television, there's much discussion this week about the decision to put the CM Punk vs. Jon Moxley match, a bout that Jim Ross called possibly the biggest match in the history of the company, on free TV next week on Dynamite.

The chatter online wonders if the unification contest is on Dynamite, what will be the main event of the All Out pay-per-view just two weeks later?

The Wrestling Observer's Dave Meltzer reported that MJF, the young star that supposedly threatened to walk out of Double or Nothing a few months ago because he was upset with his current contract, could be on his way back to the company. First, if this was in fact some elaborate work, including when MJF used profanity in an obviously scripted moment on TBS, the payoff wasn't anywhere near worth it. The entire story, which was bizarre to start with, took much of the focus of that weekend's pay-per-view match off of Wardlow, who didn't necessarily get propelled after he power bombed MJF. Sure, Wardlow has done well since that time, winning the TNT championship, but he didn't get the spring board from the victory over MJF you'd expect when you take into account that there was a two-year build up for it.

This past March, MJF and CM Punk had a dog collar match that was a master piece. Forget about how many stars one of the spot fest got on a pay-per-view, the dog collar match was built on emotion and drama. Some are speculating that MJF's return could be booked around the unification match as a way to play spoiler to CM Punk's title reign, setting up a grudge match at All Out in Chicago.

First, I have to say that while Friedman has the talent to be a top guy and a major star, I think that because too much is usually shoehorned onto most of the AEW programs, the narrative around him is almost out of sight, out of mind. This is why I don't think the whole Double or Nothing debacle was effective if it was designed to be a work, because MJF's  momentum has decreased significantly since he disappeared from television. It's tough for fans to stay invested in his future after more than a few weeks when the general consensus was that he would have to sit on the sidelines for almost two years before he has any realistic options outside of AEW.

Again, don't get me wrong, MJF is a star, but I'm not sure he has the level of star power right now to keep fans clamoring for a return after there hasn't been any mention or news about him in the past few months. If a guy is willing to just sit at home, eventually the audience shifts the focus to the wrestlers that are there. Granted, a major angle could spark things for Friedman, but that remains to be seen. Plus, I'm not sure Punk/MJF with two weeks of build would be enough to be considered a big time pay-per-view match. In fact, unless Tony Khan has something major up his sleeve, I'm not sure any title match with just two weeks of a build up is going to be considered a PPV worthy main event. Remember, as I've said many times, it's exponentially more difficult to sell $50 pay-per-views in the modern era because of how much free content is available on Peacock and on standard television. That becomes underscored when you take into account how many gimmick matches Khan books for TV that would probably be better suited for pay-per-view. Right now, what's the biggest selling point for All Out? The completely unnecessary trios titles?

With All Out booked for Chicago, it only makes business sense for CM Punk, the hometown guy, to be scheduled for either a world title match or at the very least a major grudge match. Again, I'm not sure either of those can be accomplished within the two weeks between the unification bout and the pay-per-view. Sure, Tony could book a non-finish for Punk vs. Moxley to have the rematch at All Out, but once the match is in the ring on free TV, it won't be the same draw for PPV.

As I said in a column earlier this week, the promo between Punk and Moxley was very revealing, with Punk potentially showing his hand to the audience. If Punk comes off as too arrogant or condescending towards Moxley, it's possible the fans could reject him, especially because statements like that go along with rumors that CM Punk is really always about CM Punk, not the prosperity of pro wrestling that he claimed in the past. The entire promo might've been cleared ahead of time, but perception is often reality in the wrestling business, and if Punk sounds like a snob, his rally speeches on television might garner a hostile reaction.

Just for the sake of discussion, let's assume that MJF will play a role in the unification match and thus some major match at All Out. If the initial disagreement that caused him to no-show the autograph signing the day before Double or Nothing was legitimate, how exactly could Tony Khan reasonable invest in him as a major player for AEW again? Doing so would risk a similar situation where if MJF gets dissatisfied he could threaten to walk out again, which could leave the company in a potentially bigger predicament the next time than they were in prior to the Wardlow bout. That's why walking out is such a terrible decision, because it lets the promoter know that a talent could always decide not to do business since there's a track record for it. Obviously, there have been numerous disagreements about finishes throughout the history of the industry, but one way or another the match usually got in the ring because there was still money to be made for everyone involved.

Can Tony Khan really trust that MJF would be willing to do business again?

That's why even if MJF is the wild card here and is the reason that the unification match is on free TV, it's not automatically a smart business move to immediately book him for a prominent spot, just to get him back in the ring again. The signed contract that MJF already has and doesn't expire until 2024 is the agreement that should get him in the ring. In some ways, Tony Khan booked himself into a corner and while it will be intriguing to see how this unfolds on television, I don't think even an MJF return will necessarily sell the pay-per-view.