It has been almost two years since Conor McGregor, the brash Irishman that still maintains the position as the top drawing card for the UFC, appeared inside the octagon. In an attempt to avenge a loss to former Lightweight champion, Dustin Poirier from six months earlier, McGregor suffered a gruesome injury, snapping his leg at the conclusion of the first round of the main event at UFC 264 in July 2021. Considering the severity of the injury, which was similar to the broken leg that Anderson Silva suffered years earlier, many wondered if the charismatic striker would return to the sport?
If the former multi-division champion steps into the cage again, it won't be during this year. Despite being a coach opposite 155 LBS contender, Micheal Chandler for the current season of The Ultimate Fighter reality show, a concept that was rejuvenated with distribution on cable on the ESPN network and Conor's role in the season, McGregor is officially ineligible to fight in 2023. To be able to compete in the UFC, a fight must be enters into the USADA testing pool for at least six months. Conor hasn't entered the testing program, and the finale pay-per-view of the year is December 18th so the earliest he could return to the octagon would be sometime in 2024, if he applies to the USADA program.
The premise of the TUF production was that the weekly series would chronicle the journey of the finalists in each weight class to the finale where the winners would earn a UFC contract. In many ways, it's a very wise marketing strategy, as it allows the audience to get to know the background of the fighters and ideally, it can make a star in the process. At the same time, the entire seasons theoretically builds up and sells the clash of the coaches on pay-per-view.
While McGregor's potential comeback to MMA will sell tickets and pay-per-views on its own, it's obvious that a grudge match is what draws the biggest numbers. Conor's career is proof of that, as he often borrowed a page from the sports entertainment playbook to talk his way into the biggest fights and biggest paydays possible. Without Conor/Chandler on the schedule, it renders the majority of the reason for the casual fan to tune into the Ultimate Fighter show moot since there's no conclusion to the coaches rivalry after the season. After two years away from MMA, the UFC office gave McGregor about a dozen weeks of national television exposure to hype his return, but he left management with very little direction for the television show.
Let's be honest here, the costs involved with the production of this season of TUF were ultimately designed to give Conor McGregor the platform to promote himself for his comeback to pay-per-view, which would allow everyone to make a lot of money from it. Michael Chandler is a solid competitor, but yielded just two wins so far in the UFC, albeit against top competition. His most recent fight in November of last year was a defeat against the previously mentioned Poirier via submission in the third round. At 37, the former Bellator Lightweight champion could still have a few more years left in the prime of his career, but the point being, at least on paper, this could've been a winnable fight for McGregor.
That being said, the fact Conor leaves the UFC without a direction shouldn't be too surprising when you take into account this scenario happened before.
Conor might be a mostly one-dimensional fighter without much grappling or submission skills, but he's a tremendous striker. He has the speed and the power to be a KO artist, and that combined with his pro wrestling-style hype is why the causal fans paid to see him on pay-per-view. Dana White, being the savvy promoter that he is, looked to market the Dublin native as the next top star of the company, especially after the retirement or exit from the organization of the stars of the previous era. The UFC shoehorned him into a title fight with Eddie Alvarez for the 155 LBS championship in 2016 after he KO'ed the legendary Jose Aldo to claim the Featherweight weight title and then he split a pair of welterweight contests with Nick Diaz. Despite not competing or winning any fights in the lightweight division previously, Conor was given the title shot against Alvarez so that the UFC could promote him as a double champion. Both divisions were completely halted because McGregor wisely decided to take the promotional hype from the UFC and agreed to a boxing bout with Floyd Mayweather for a $100 million payday.
Conor was stripped of both belts without defending them, but was granted a title shot upon his return after a two-year hiatus when he was submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov in October 2018. Just over a year later, he beat the aging Donald Cerrone in just 40 seconds before he lost a pair of contests to Poirier, with the latter because of the leg injury mentioned prior. Outside of the Cerrone fight, because of the combination of the Floyd fight and the injury, it's been almost seven years since McGregor had a dominate win in the UFC.
Given the question marks about the injury and his ineligibility to fight, you have to wonder, is the UFC putting too much stock in McGregor?
Granted, Conor McGregor is the top star, and outside of Jon Jones, especially with the recent retirement of Amanda Nunes, there aren't many main stream stars on the roster, but at this point, is catering to McGregor really going to pay off?
Sure, the UFC could shift the McGregor/Chandler bout to early next year, potentially for the trademark Super Bowl weekend event, but that depends on if Conor actually enters the USADA testing pool. Even if Conor gets into the program to be eligible to fight, the longer that the potential bout gets delayed, the less the match-up will draw with viewers that watched The Ultimate Fighter show. The sizzle from the season will fade and there's not nearly as much of a selling point. It's possible there's a reason that Conor hasn't entered the program, maybe early test results would prevent him from fighting? Keep in mind, Anderson Silva tested positive for a banned substance after his fight against Nate Diaz when he returned from the leg injury. Perhaps, McGregor is taking a medication to heal from the injury that is legitimately prescribed for it, but not a substance that is permitted to fight? Even if that's the case, Conor should've been upfront with the UFC about when he could realistically return to competition.
However, there's a much bigger and more serious problem that could keep Conor McGregor away from the UFC than anything to do with USADA testing. He was recently accused of sexual assault against a woman in a bathroom at game 4 of the NBA finals. If Conor actually assaulted her, he should be charged with the crime and the UFC should re-evaluate if they want to continue to promote his fights. McGregor has a laundry list of incidents on his record, but the seriousness of the most recent accusation could prevent him from fighting, especially if there will be a lengthy court case.
Even if McGregor is proven innocent of the accusations, in some ways, he's still a cautionary tale in sports. The guy is worth a few hundred million dollars and he has a track record of getting into bar fights. It remains to be seen how the legal situation will unfold, but the bottom line is, if McGregor isn't in the USADA testing pool, he won't be fighting in the UFC so it might be time for the UFC to consider if Conor McGregor can still be the top star in the organization? The answer would appear to be no because a top star can draw money, but McGregor can't generate cash for the company if he isn't approved for competition.
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