What's next for Raw?

The pro wrestling rumor mill continues to swirl. Nick Hausman, who is known as the reporter that sent CM Punk on a tirade at the infamous All Out press conference last year, made claims about a potential Warner Brothers Discovery deal for Raw that caused quite the stir online. As we know, Raw is the only television property under the Endeavor banner that doesn't have a new TV deal in place when the current contract expires in late-2024. Smackdown, the blue brand that spent the past few years on Fox, will shift back to USA so NBC Universal is still in the sports entertainment game, which makes it possible that the corporation might also eventually land a deal to retain Raw since the Monday night franchise is a staple of the USA network. NXT will make the move from USA to the CW in early-2024.

We also know that Warner Discovery currently airs All Elite Wrestling programming, with that deal scheduled to expire last next year. If WB is in talks with WWE brass about bringing the Raw brand to the Turner networks, where does that put AEW in the industry?

First, I have to say that I seriously doubt that anything will develop from the supposed conversations between WWE and Discovery, if they happened at all. Nick Hausman recently launched his own wrestling news site and I wouldn't go as far as to call this story pure clickbait, but it wouldn't be surprising at all if he heard a vague reference to Raw being shopped to networks and then embellished the narrative to get website traffic. It's important to remember that dirt sheet writers, with the exception of The Wrestling Observer, Mike Johnson's PWInsider, and The Torch, basically pick up crumbles from the three previously mentioned resources. Again, I don't think Hausman was being dishonest, but rather exaggerating the narrative, which isn't too surprising when the "reporting" is based on a business that intrinsically tries to build as much drama as possible to generate interest in the product. The addition that CM Punk might've opened the door for talks between the two sides is laughable. The guy is back two weeks and suddenly he's an intermediate for business discussions? The vague implication would be that Punk is attempting to get AEW tossed from the Discovery networks because Tony Khan fired him. It shows how silly some "reporting" can be around an industry that originated on the carnival circuit.

That being said, it shouldn't shock anyone if there was an eventual meeting between the two sides, not because of some sinister plan by CM Punk, but rather it's within TKO's interest to meet with as many potential TV partners as possible to gauge the amount of money the market will offer them for the Raw brand. Within the modern era, there are countless media distribution options and thus big money to go along with it. As I've detailed before, with an increase in media distribution, there becomes the task of advertisers getting their products in front of the right demographic to avoid being lost in the shuffle of the almost constant sales pitches that are involved in advertisement. Consumers get bombarded with ads for products or services almost everywhere they go so sponsors want to make a targeted effort to get their products in front of an audience that will be potential customers that will spend money on them. Obviously, networks and advertisers work toward common goals. The networks want the ad dollars and the advertisers want to translate that investment into the sale of products. The content on the network, in this case WWE Raw, gives the viewers a reason to tune into the channel in the first place.

It goes without say that there are a lot of moving parts and different perspectives to this situation.

Essentially, this goes beyond any specific aspect of pro wrestling. This is major business on a main stream scale with hundreds of millions of dollars invested. The executives at USA or Amazon Prime don't care if Seth Rollins wanted to really fight CM Punk or if it was just a work, (we know it was) but rather if a steady and consistent audience will tune into the shows so that the channel can use that to sell commercials to the previously mentioned advertisers.

As for where Raw ends up, I think anything mentioned about it is pure speculation. It's very possible that it might remain on USA, but again, it makes sense for WWE management to at least test the market to see what type of numbers other networks would be willing to pay, but that doesn't automatically mean that USA is off the table, especially when the channel will have Smackdown in 2024. Speaking of Smackdown, since the Fox network reportedly lost money on the massive deal it signed with WWE in 2019, it will be interesting to see if that scenario has an effect on the negotiations for Raw. The pandemic and the lack of live crowds for a portion of the contract didn't help, but the bottom line is, the blue brand wasn't as successful for Fox as the channel thought it would be so other networks might take a cautious approach to negotiations. Another outside factor is how the climate of the TV industry evolves and if that's beneficial to networks or not. For example, a few years ago, there was speculation that streaming was going to lead to the end of traditional television, but as the market was flooded with streaming options as more organizations wanted a piece of the pie, the argument could be made that it become oversaturated so the cost of the collective streaming choices became almost as expensive as some cable packages. As a result, the streaming market condensed somewhat in recent years and there are a few main platforms that have a portion of the media market.

I mentioned Amazon Prime earlier and while the major retailer has enough cash to land Raw for it's streaming platform, I sincerely hope that's not where the show ends up. It might sound cliche, but the easiest way to watch something is still to scroll through the listings of a cable package. By nature, pro wrestling is discovered by flipping through the channels so I'm not sure if another barrier to entry so to speak is a way to build the audience in the future.

Keep in mind, the rumors of WBD and a Raw deal are probably cannon fodder, but just for the sake of discussion, if a WWE property would land on the Turner networks, I don't think that necessarily means that All Elite Wrestling would have to find a new TV home. Yes, in the past the WWE almost always stayed within its own bubble and rarely worked with other organizations on anything. The lucha libre deal that led to the short-lived Super Astros show in the late-90s was a rare exception to the rule. However, the company is quite literally not Vince McMahon's WWE. The Endeavor group is there to make the cash, they aren't under the obligation of any of the old wrestling tropes. TKO will attempt to maximize its value for its stockholders, and if WBD would make the best offer for Raw, those executives aren't going to turn it down just because another wrestling show is on one of the numerous channels under the Turner umbrella. Again, I doubt Raw lands on Discovery because of the other franchises that Turner will look to secure for the channels, including the NBA, but it's not impossible that WWE and AEW could be on different Turner channels. If anything, that would allow Discovery to corner a major portion of the sports entertainment market, and in some ways even further solidify the WWE as the top sports entertainment organization.

The biggest takeaway from this speculation isn't a deal between Discovery and WWE, but rather the possibilities that are on the table with TKO, not Vince McMahon, making the decisions on the direction of the company from a corporate perspective. It was just announced that TNA will have a streaming deal with Endeavor, which is a collaboration that probably wouldn't of happened if Vince McMahon retained power in the organization. Yes, Mickie James was involved in the Royal Rumble when she was the KO champion, but that was more to make things right with her after she was disrespected when her gear was sent to her in a trash bag following her WWE release. Endeavor knows that TNA isn't a threat to WWE in any way, shape, or form. But, the TNA library has several hours of footage of some of the WWE's biggest stars so they negotiate a deal that will allow TNA increased exposure and Endeavor will make some cash from it so it's a win-win for everyone involved. In some ways, the WWE is in completely new territory because of the amount of media muscle that TKO has with the association of the UFC. The potential networks that are considered for Raw will get the show that has consistent and steady, albeit somewhat sluggish ratings and could possibly get their network mentioned on major UFC fight cards to promote the WWE events. As the situation unfolds, it really demonstrate how major and how much of an impact the WWE/UFC merger had on the sports entertainment industry.