Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano might not be the "super fight" that millions of people were demanding in 2026, but that doesn't mean that it won't become the mixed martial arts event that millions of people watch when it airs on Netflix later this year.
It goes without saying that it was very surprising when it was announced earlier this week that former UFC Bantamweight champion, Ronda Rousey will return to the cage, as her meteoric fall, which was arguably faster than her meteoric rise to stardom in the sport, suggested that she shut the door on that chapter of her career completely when she was pummeled into retirement after a pair of losses a decade ago by Holly Holm and Amanda Nunes respectively.
Ironically, the same could be said for Gina Carano, who made a name for herself as a breakout star during the relatively early days of women's MMA as the standout athlete in a relatively small pond.
In many respects, Rousey and Carano, both at their peak of popularity, as well as their exit from MMA, took similar paths.
When you look at the trajectory of women's MMA, Gina Carano was the first fighter that people took notice of, partially because of her marketable look, and mostly because of the fact that when female MMA fighters were still a novelty on the cards, she was the most successful competitor. Unfortunately, most of her career after she turned pro in 2006, was still somewhat under the radar because at the time, the UFC was still trying to get sanctioned in certain states, and the genre as a whole was still building before it surged in popularity a few years later. Carano fought on early cards for the ill-fated Elite XC group, one of a slew of promotions that were trying to just on the band wagon and get a piece of the pie as the sport became more mainstream through the UFC's original deal on Spike TV. There are some parallels between the saturated streaming market today and the collection of MMA organizations that fizzled out in the mid-2000s. Similar to any other industry, the market determines how many promotions it can support with the number of customers. When Elite XC folded in 2008, Strikeforce was basically there to take its place with a deal on Showtime and CBS.
Cris Cyborg was the other top female fighter on the Elite XC and then Strikeforce cards so there was anticipation for when the two undefeated women clashed in the cage in 2009. Cyborg completely overwhelmed Carano with punches, prompting the referee to stop the fight just before the end of the first round. Carano's first loss was the end of her MMA career, which spanned just three years, with a 7-1 record before she hung up the gloves .
During the time that Carano made a name for herself in Elite XC, Ronda won a bronze medal in judo at the 2008 Olympic games, setting up for her MMA debut a few years later. In some respects, "Rowdy" Ronda picked up where Carano left of in terms of representing women's MMA as the face of the sport. She fought most of her early bouts in Strikeforce, and when the UFC bought the promotion in 2011, it opened the door for her to become one of the top stars of the biggest MMA company in the world.
As a powerful and dynamic athlete, Ronda had a Tyson-type of draw to her events, as she judo threw and arm barred her opponents in the first round. The UFC put the promotional machine behind her and for a brief moment, she was one of the most popular mainstream sports stars in the world. TV, film, and talk show appearances became a part of her schedule between highly-anticipated UFC pay-per-view fights.
She was undefeated with a dozen victories, sparking discussion about a potential super fight with Cyborg, the same Brazilian striker that retired Carano years earlier. However, when Holly Holm shocked the world in November of 2015 and sent Ronda crashing to the canvas to claim the Bantamweight championship with a brutal head kick, it altered not only the career of Rousey, but the direction of women's MMA. There was speculation about it at the time, but there's no doubt about it in hindsight, Ronda Rousey couldn't handle the loss. It took her a full year to return to the octagon to challenge the previously mentioned Amanda Nunes for the same 135 LBS title. Ronda refused to do any media or press interviews to promote the PPV main event. It took Nunes just 48 seconds and landing ten unanswered punches before the referee rescued Rousey from any further damage to stop the fight. With a record of 12-2 and just a five-year run in the sport, Ronda's career was over.
With the increased exposure, most of Ronda's TV and movie offers declined quickly after her fall from grace as the UFC champion. She went on to have two stints in the WWE that yielded mixed results. Ironically, Carano spent several more years as an actress than she did as a fighter, working on several film projects after she retired from MMA. She was in the first two seasons of The Mandarin before a series of controversial political posts on social media got her fired from the show. She sued for wrongful termination and it was eventual settled without the terms of the agreement being disclosed. She was slated for a few conservative=based projects, but they didn't materialize.
I think it's fair to say that Ronda Rousey wouldn't have gotten the opportunities that she had without the stint that Carano had to put female MMA into the sports discussion, but is there really a demand for this fight in 2026?
In truth, I'm not sure why either of these former fighters would agree to make a comeback. Even with what we can reasonably assume will be mega paydays for them, do they really need the money? Both of them have made a hefty amount of cash through either their fight careers or work they garnered from the publicity of being a fighter. The puzzling part of the whole scenario is that, especially in retrospect, the 43-year-old Carano was a fighter to attempt to became a star, not an MMA champion. That's not a jab at her, as making the most money possible is the entire point of capitalism, if she could land the cash on-screen without risking the injuries of the fight game good for her. At the same time, she's been retired from the sport exponentially longer than she was actually a fighter, and she quit after her first loss so why return to the cage 17 years later?
On the other end of the spectrum, Ronda Rousey wanted to be an MMA champion, and couldn't handle the losses. She wasn't the same fighter after she was knocked out by Holly Holm and never regained her confidence as a competitor. What exactly is there to prove if she beats Gina Carano, a fighter that accomplished significantly less than she did? At 39, Rousey isn't going to make a comeback to MMA, this is merely going to be a one-off return. It might be a harsh reality of the situation, but the sport surpassed Carano and Rousey, with the latter having a legacy, while the former had short term notetiry, in the grand scheme of things.
Despite that, this event will sell tickets and draw a number on Netfliz, especially because it's being promoted through Jake Paul's MVP group. As a purest, these type of sideshow events make me shake my head, but the novelty sells, albeit on a limited basis. Given the reach of Netfliz, there will be enough hype around this event for it to be successful, to a lesser extent, but a similar fashion to the Paul/Tyson bout that aired on the streaming platform. Besides the fact that there's a much smaller portion of the audience that knows about Carano's fight career than the fan base that Rousey had, there's no doubt that Ronda's return to competition will be the draw for this event.
It's no coincidence that the show on May 16th will be held at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California since that's the same city that hosted some of the Strikeforce cards that featured both fighters years ago. The reason that "Rowdy" Ronda will draw a crowd and viewership is simple, she was so dominate during her prime that it was underwhelming and her career seemed somewhat unfinished when she abruptly quit MMA. This bout against Carano will give her the chance to conclude her fighting career in a more fitting and favorable fashion. It's almost a foregone conclusion that Rousey should be favored and will probably win the fight.
To complete the gimmick aspect of the event, a rematch more than thirty years in the making will take place when the 59-year-old Royce Gracie returns to mixed martial arts after a ten-year absence to challenge the 58-year-old Kimo Leopoldo. I have no idea how in the wide world of sports that the California Athletic Commission will sanction such a circus, and it will be interesting to see if the contest actually takes place when the event happens in May. Gracie beat Kimo via submission in the first round of their 1994 bout at UFC 3, but couldn't continue in the tournament from the injuries he sustained during the fight. Kimo hasn't fought in two decades, and at least on the surface, it appears that it would be irresponsible to allow participants near the age of 60 to compete in MMA.
If this was on pay-per-view, the numbers would be abysmal, but with it being included in the standard Netflix subscription, it will draw a number because America enjoys a circus event, which is why politics are such a topic of discussion today.