Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Will Conor McGregor retire?

Just two weeks ago, I penned an article about Conor McGregor's most recent blunder outside of the octagon that saw the former UFC Lightweight champion arrested on charges of strong-armed robbery, stemming from an incident where he allegedly smashed someone's phone after they took a picture of him as he left a Miami club. Earlier this week, the Dublin native tweeted that he retired from mixed martial arts, despite an appearance on the Jimmy Fallon show when he discussed fighting earlier that day. This "retirement" announcement isn't new for McGregor, considering that he claimed that he retired in 2016 before he fought again when UFC management negotiated a new contract for him to return to the octagon.

Conor reemerged in the cage against Khabib Nurmagovedv at UFC 229, losing via submission in the fourth round last October. The one-sided defeat was followed by the infamous post-fight brawl between members of each corner. The anticipated grudge match generated a record-setting 2.4 million pay-per-view buys.

With the recent announcement of the UFC pay-per-view to start as an exclusive to the ESPN+ streaming service, fans will still pay the usual $65 to access to PPV cards, but must be ESPN subscribers for the opportunity to order the events. Considering the major money the network spent to secure MMA content for the seven-year deal, it's understandable they want to maximize their chance to use it as a way to solidify their streaming service. At the same time, it was still surprising that UFC brass was willing to departure from that traditional pay-per-view platform that garnered the promotion the majority of its revenue. It's not uncommon for certain headliners of particular cards to get a percentage of a PPV buyrate, but how that will be determined under the ESPN+ platform remains to be seen. Depending on the actual numbers and what type of deal the UFC has for the streaming service, fighters might not necessarily make as much money on PPV points.

Ironically, a few weeks ago, Conor McGregor claimed that he wanted a percentage of the entire company as a part of a deal for him to compete for the WME-owned group again. Make no mistake about it, this latest "retirement" from the brash Irishman is nothing more than a stunt to attempt to garner a bigger payday to put the gloves on again. On the surface, it might seem like Conor, who also has a lucrative endorsement deal on a new whiskey brand, is trying to maximize his value when the opportunity presented itself. It's no secret that he's the top draw for the organization, and with the unpredictability of Jon Jones, the argument could be made that McGregor is the only guaranteed major draw for them. The perceived leverage that Conor would have to make such lofty demands as a share in the company is that through a series of retirements and injuries, the UFC lacked star power in most divisions. As I've written about before, even some of management's decisions on how to handle certain divisions were counterproductive to the process of new stars being made as more established competitors made an exit.

Most importantly, UFC management shouldn't fold to the demands of Conor McGregor.

Even if it meant that the former two-division champion didn't fight again, UFC brass can't set a precedent of fighters getting an ownership of the company as apart of their contract to compete in the company. If management allows that for McGregor, any fighter that achieves any level of major success in the future would attempt to make similar demands, which would eventually lead to a total debacle in the organization. During an interview with TMZ, Dana White basically called McGregor's bluff and said that it would make sense for him to retire because of the mega payday from the Floyd Mayweather boxing match. Dana also mentioned that new stars would emerge for the organization.

Part of Dana's job is the promotional spin on news like this, but he's actually correct when he says that new stars will be on the horizon. Keep in mind, ESPN has saddled much of the potential success of their digital service to the success of UFC events so one of the top networks in cable has quite literally a vested interest to discover and market new stars. Believe it or not, another major star will be made under the ESPN banner that fans will pay to watch fight and will thus draw numbers for the UFC.

That's not to discount McGregor's ability to sell himself, but rather that the sport had different stars throughout various eras and will have more stars in the future. As I wrote a few weeks ago, Conor is really at a pivotal point in his career because he was dominated in a boxing match and then dominated in his return to the octagon. If he would lose again, it's very possible that much of the shine of his star power could wear off if he's exposed as more sizzle than substances in the cage. As surprising as it might sound, McGregor is overvaluing himself in this scenario. Don't get me wrong, I hope that fighters can make as much money as possible and they have every right to try to negotiate the best deal possible for their contract. At the same time, the former 155 LBS champion made a request to own a percentage of the company just to fight, which would mean that he would have a financial stake  that's affected when his possible opponents are promoted under the UFC banner, which could be considered a conflict of interest, especially for other fighters that negotiate contracts.

The bottom line is, Conor McGregor isn't bigger than the UFC, and as mentioned previously, it's somewhat concerning that he could be on the path to become another cautionary tale, especially considering that he's in the prime of his career, but he has made more headlines outside of the octagon than for his accomplishments in the sport.

Sunday, March 24, 2019

The AEW brand

Last weekend at AAA's Rey De Reyes event that was streamed live on the Mexican promotion Twitch channel, The Young Bucks challenged and won the AAA tag team titles, defeating the Lucha Brothers in an impromptu main event. This was done as a way to further the angle that was set up at the All Elite Wrestling ticket event last month. Cody, one of the Vice Presidents of AEW, was also at the event, which solidified the group's working agreement with All Elite.

This stop south of the boarder is just the most recent in a series of appearances from AEW management, as they have made surprise appearances at various independent shows since the announcement of All Elite in January. Granted, AAA had various peeks and valleys in its history, and the argument could be made that The Bucks' unadvertised match does much more for them then AAA's platform could do for the Bucks, but this could simply be apart of a more important process to the overall status of AEW.

Make no mistake, traditional television is still and will remain the standard for main stream distribution, mostly because it remains the easiest and a sufficient way to access content. From a technological stand point, TV and the physical cable lines that are used for installation provide more stability than the WiFi signal often used for streaming devices. There's a reason that web-based services such as Netflix and Prime Video were integrated into some cable company platforms as additional options for customers, because the vast majority of the general public still uses traditional TV as the most direct way to access content.

While TV and more specifically what network signs AEW is a key to success for the new league, that doesn't discount  the power of the internet to create a buzz ahead of the launch of the project. Obviously, the Young Bucks and Cody used social media to build their "Elite brand" to get to this point. It goes without say that if The Bucks didn't push themselves as over-the-top new age professional wrestlers through Twitter and their Youtube shows, AEW wouldn't exists today. This speaks most importantly to the Bucks' ability to market themselves with a persona that complimented their in-ring style and to extend their association with the Bullet Club beyond just an angle within a wrestling promotion. Matt and Nick Jackson are amazing aerial talents, but their ability to develop entertaining characters are what will ultimately allow them the possibility to reach a mainstream audience when All Elite debuts on TV in the United States. You also have to give props to Cody Rhodes, he bet on himself and he won. Cody knew the prime of his career was being floundered in the shuffle of WWE, and thought he could do better outside of the rigid structure of sports entertainment. He could've easily stayed under contract to the biggest promotion in the world and made big money to do it with the trade being his potential to reach a different level within the sport. He walked away from that to prove himself, and his passion for the industry is one of the reasons fans have embraced his new venture. Perhaps the biggest takeaway from all of this is that it's definitely possible to become a legitimate star outside of the WWE, which wasn't the case just ten years ago.

As mentioned, streaming is increasing in popularity, but cable remains the standard and "cord cutting" isn't nearly as relevant as some might guess as far as content distribution. Part of the reason for that is simply that the concept of WiFi and streaming is still a relatively new concept. Keep in mind, two decades ago the internet was considered more of a novelty item and actual computers just began to be more of a household item. It depends on what poll you search for, but roughly 25% of the United States had internet access in 1998 and that number jumped to just 40% by 2000. So, the point is, those that want to discount traditional TV and the value of a strong TV deal for a promotion in favor of "cord cutting" should realize that the development of technology will still need time to evolve within that particular industry.

That being said, streaming does give niche products increased exposure and a bigger platform. For example, independent shows can be streamed live to a wider audience. Just 15 years ago, that level of indy show had to be ordered through the mail and fans would have to wait weeks after the event took place to watch it. For the Bucks, similar to how they used Twitter to build a foundation that they used to propel themselves to a bigger level, they can use the social media platform to build a buzz around the launch of AEW. In theory, they can market the start of the new promotion through the internet and then hopefully, that buzz can translate to a wider audience with the main stream distribution of the AEW television deal. Remember, every time the Bucks make a surprise appearance at an independent event and it trends on Twitter, that's a chance for someone to discover why the names are trending and get information about All Elite. The bottom line is, getting the name All Elite Wrestling as much as exposure as possible ahead of the start of the promotion will increase its chances of success when a major network broadcast the show to the general public.

Obviously, it takes many pieces of the puzzle to fit into place for a pro wrestling project to find major success. Sometimes it can be a matter of timing so a lot will depend on if AEW management has the right place at the right time. Regardless of the results of AEW, you must give credit to those involved because they have put the money and the resources in place to take a chance at the biggest level possible in the business. That will ultimately give All Elite the best chance to get off the ground because management is willing to risk the money and in some ways, the status they've already achieved in the sport to potentially change the status of the industry. Does that mean that AEW will become bigger than WWE? No, the McMahon empire has decades of establishment behind it, but if All Elite gets off the ground, it could shift the paradigm of the business and force WWE to take a different path than the complacency that often develops for the publicly traded company. From a business prospective, the success for AEW won't be based on if they garner Raw level ratings, but if they can generate revenue and a profit. If I had to guess, I'd say that AEW has the best chance of being an established national promotion within a few years that actually makes an impact in the industry since the existence of WCW. Furthermore the AEW project has provided the most intrigue for professional wrestling in the United States since that time and it will be extremely interesting to see the status of All Elite this year.

Friday, March 15, 2019

The Conor McGregor Situation

Earlier this week, the UFC's top star, Conor McGregor was arrested after an incident where he allegedly smashed someone's phone outside of a club in Miami, Florida. The former two-division champion was charged with a felony, strong-armed robbery and criminal mischief, and was taken into custody before he was released on $12,500 bond.

This latest incident puts doubt around his return to the octagon, with recent rumors suggesting potential opponents for his next bout in the cage.

Reportedly, the confrontation started because someone took a picture of the MMA fighter as he was leaving the club, which prompted McGregor to grab the phone and smash it on the ground. Unfortunately, this isn't the first felony he was charged with, as the brash Irishman was initially charged with a felony offense, stemming from the infamous bus incident last April in Brooklyn. That arrest resulted from when McGregor threw a moving dolly through a bus window that transported the fighters booked on that weekend's card, and there were injuries that caused event to be shuffled. Eventually, the charges were reduced and Conor pleaded no contest to disorderly conduct, which saw him ordered to complete community service.

Footage of the bus incident was later used in commercials to promote the Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov bout at UFC 229, which generated a record-setting 2.4 million buys.

As was well-documented, after Khabib won via submission in the fourth round of a mostly one-sided contest, he jumped over the octagon and fought members of McGregor's corner. A complete brawl began when people from Nurmagomedov's team stormed the cage to attempt to attack Conor. The McGregor and Khabib fight teams continued to brawl while security attempted to restore order in the building. Post-fight, Khabib cited Conor's previous comments about his family as the reason for the outburst after the victory. Granted, McGregor's antics are just to sell the pay-per-view, but Khabib took it as a serious insult. Both fighters were retroactively suspended in January, but realistically, neither suspension delayed when each competitor was expected to compete again.

However, the post-fight brawl and this latest incident are apart of a pattern that suggests that McGregor might think that he can get away with these ridiculous antics because of his status in combat sports.

Make no mistake about it, Conor McGregor draws major money, and that "buys" him a certain amount of latitude, similar to how he can buy a savvy lawyer to navigate this legal jeopardy for him. It also allows him to remain an important fixture of the UFC's business plan because the organization needs star power to sell its $65 pay-per-view events. The lack of star power on the roster resulted from a combination of retirements, shaky structure within particular divisions, and a general over saturation of shows during the Fox deal. But, the ESPN contract allows for a more productive schedule and increased exposure for a new generation of fighters so it's definitely possible that more fighters will have a platform to make a name for themselves.

With Conor's arraignment on these most recent charges scheduled in a few weeks, there are several questions about the future of the former 155 LBS champion. While there's no doubt that the $100 million payday from his Floyd Mayweather boxing match in 2016 along with sponsorships and UFC bouts provided him with financial security, what direction does McGregor's career go from here? At the very least, something as petty as a smashed phone will delay him from competition in the prime of his career.

The problem could arise that McGregor will become more sizzle than substance, an aspect that some MMA purist will already point toward despite his success in the sport. While he's undoubtedly a talented striker, the Dublin native lacks a solid ground game and his four career defeats are via submission. UFC brass carefully promoted and marketed McGregor as the top star in the organization, allowing him the opportunity to win championships in two divisions. But, he never defended either belt and was stripped because of his hiatus from MMA. He took two years away from the octagon for the mega fight against Floyd, which saw him stopped by TKO in the tenth round. His anticipated return to the cage last October ended a lopsided contest with a submission defeat. Fans haven't seen Conor victorious in combat sports in two and half years, with no indication of when he will fight again. Does that mean his popularity will plummet? No, but if he loses his next bout, much of the shine could fade from the star of Conor McGregor. Keep in mind, there was a time when Ronda Rousey's meteoric rise in MMA looked unstoppable but when the hype around her was derailed by one-sided defeats, her stock dropped in MMA. The point is, the buzz even around McGregor could decrease if he can't remain competitive in the sport. Obviously, another court case won't be beneficial to the preparation of his next fight in the UFC.

More than anything, the biggest takeaway from this latest incident is that Conor McGregor should make better decisions and he's smart enough to know better than to get involved in something this petty. He's smart enough to create a Ric Flair-inspired brand and market it to the main stream, but he gets himself charged with a felony because someone took a picture of him in public. The previously mentioned ESPN deal is a major step to cement UFC as something more than just a modern trend, but rather a prominent addition to main stream sports in the United States. Some of Conor's outrageous antics reinforce some of the negative stereotypes that were around the sport prior to the exposure of mainstream television. There are numerous examples of cautionary tales in sports and some of the biggest names in history had a fall from stardom. Conor McGregor should make smart decisions in the future before his antics outside of the octagon overshadow his accomplishments in the sport.

Monday, March 11, 2019

Ronda Rousey on Raw

Ronda Rousey is trying too hard to play "bad guy" wrestler.

After social media tussles with Becky Lynch in recent weeks and the in-ring segment on Raw last week, Ronda Rousey posted an addition to her video series on Youtube where she claimed she wasn't going to "follow the script" anymore. The profanity-laced rant saw the former UFC Women's Bantamweight champion insult the WWE fan base and the sports entertainment genre. Unfortunately, Ronda's attempt to rebel against pro wrestling is more cringe worthy than cutting-edge.

Make no mistake about it, Ronda will do exactly what she's told to do and this attempt to "shoot" on the wrestling business is management's attempt to garner interest in a Wrestlemania card that is lukewarm so far. While the idea of a former UFC champion going "off script" provides a certain level of intrigue, it will ultimately have a much more negative effect on the rest of the card.

It must be said that Ronda has certainly done well during her run in the squared circle, considering her level of experience. In some ways, it's a double-edged sword because her notoriety from MMA is what allowed her to transition to a prominent spot in WWE, but there's also a degree of scrutiny that goes along with that spot. Other top acts are held to the same standard so it's not just demands being made of the former judo Olympic medalist.

It should be noted that much of the criticism toward Rousey was based on her over exaggerated tacky promos. Instead of intensity, Ronda on the mic often resulted in the audience rolling their eyes after Rousey's cliches. In many ways, the profanity in the Youtube series is a cheap replacement for her lack of substance on the mic otherwise. It's ironic that Ronda is inspired by the legendary Roddy Piper, but resorted to crude language to try to get a point across for an angle. Piper specifically mentioned in various shoot interviews before his passing that he didn't use much profanity in his promos because he thought it was a lack of talent. Aside from the language, Ronda referred to Becky Lynch by her real name, Rebecca Quin so Rousey "broke the fourth wall" because she could find Lynch's wikipedia page?

In theory, the point of this angle is Ronda trying to "sell" the fact that she's not going to cooperate with her opponents so when she waits for a spot, such as for Charolette's moonsault, how exactly is that a shoot? Doesn't the slightest look of cooperation make Ronda's proclamation look foolish? Unless she defeats her opponent in 30 seconds, which she should be able to do as a professional MMA fighter that is in the ring with a "sports entertainer" then how exactly will it look like Rousey isn't following the script? And if that one-sided brief match happens in an effort to follow through on the "shoot" scenario build up then that's not much of a show at Wrestlemania.

The totality of the situation really insults the intelligence of the audience. Granted, it's well-known that professional wrestling is a show, but when the fans are directly told on an open platform that the product is a work, it takes away from the viewing experience. When Criss Angel makes a bus disappear within seconds, the director of the show doesn't walk on stage prior to the illusion and say, "hey folks, the bus isn't disappearing, we're simply putting a curtain in front of it after Criss waves his hands in front of it." The fans buy tickets to the show to see the spectacle, the same way the larger than life characters in sports entertainment are booked to attempt to create memorable moments.

So when Ronda basically says, "the rest of this stuff is phony, I'm the real deal" and management is going to run with that selling point, how exactly are the fans supposed to invest in any of the other matches on the show? If Seth Rollins vs. Brock Lesnar is openly acknowledged the "fake match" on the card while Ronda's match is "real" then why should the fans care what happens to the universal title match?

I'd suggest that this attempt to go "behind-the-scenes" is being used as a poor substitute for compelling booking and an intriguing television product as a build up to the biggest show of the year. It's almost comical that WWE brass tailors much of its business strategy to be considered mainstream entertainment, but the structure of actual product is often counterproductive to that. Ronda Rousey as a former MMA "real" fighter is given priority over the rest of the card, which sends the message that the sports entertainment product that WWE is trying to sell is secondary. That wouldn't be the case if management allowed for an atmosphere where true star power could flourish and where legitimate money-drawing stars could be established.

Perhaps, this lame attempt to "go off script" could've been avoided if Ronda was better on the mic, but again, make no mistake, Rousey will follow exactly what she's told to do and when it looks like she's working with her opponents, this entire "real fight" angle will look silly. I'm not sure how management will generate a major buzz about Wrestlemania, but it definitely isn't this angle to build the show.