With the recent CM Punk headlines, speculation continues to swirl about not only when he could return to All Elite Wrestling, but also the rumored Saturday night show that some have reported will be announced later this month. I already penned an article about why I think a third-tier show is unnecessary and would dilute the product, but if the show gets launched, it's another piece of the puzzle in the bigger picture for the company within the next few months.
As we know, 2022 was the first time in the rather brief existence of the organization that you could say that there wasn't progress made for the promotion. Ironically, much of that perception was created by CM Punk's off-script promo, the infamous All Out press conference, and the backstage brawl that followed it. That along with a few other fights behind the scenes and various other rumors of dissension created some doubt about how established the company could be, especially with a noticeable drop in ratings compared to last year.
However, the bigger picture is Wembley Stadium, the same venue that hosted the historic Bret Hart vs. British Bulldog match over thirty years ago. In many ways, this is Tony Khan just creating his chance to reenact wrestling history, the same way that he marked out for himself when he announced that he bought Ring Of Honor with the comparison to the angle where Shane McMahon bought WCW, but regardless of the reason behind it, if All Elite Wrestling has a strong showing, it will send a message about the organization.
Granted, the event will be in the UK, but the target audience is the broader European market, which is completely fine because it's still a major accomplishment to successfully run a 90,000-seat venue. The demand for American pro wrestling live has always been solid for the European market, simply because of how rare of an opportunity it is with the logistics of events. The travel and time difference were major hurdles in the past and can still play a role now, but at least broadcasting is less of an obstacle with the access of streaming platforms. Keep in mind, American pay-per-views were shown for free in the UK for years because the time difference had the live broadcasts starting at 1 AM for those in the country.
There are pros and cons to the stadium as the first All Elite venture in the UK. On one hand, the first time an organization runs an event in a new market, it can generate solid sales because it's fresh territory and the city isn't oversaturated with events. Again, with the rarity of live shows from American groups in the market, there's definitely a demand for AEW in Europe, and if the fans want to see the production live then this would be their chance to attend a show so it makes sense to try to realistically run as big of an event as possible, both to maximize the money drawn and to establish the brand in the market. On the other hand, it's undoubtedly a risk to run a 90,000-seat building without a previous track record that would demonstrate that there was that type of demand for tickets. For example, if the company can sell 40,000 tickets for an event, that's very impressive, but not if it's for a venue that would be literally half empty at the same time.
I hope I'm wrong, but I honestly think that Tony Khan was too focused on the Bret Hart/Bulldog scenario when he booked Wembley Stadium. While it would be absolutely tremendous for the company and thus a benefit for the industry if the show draws a major crowd, 90,000 seats is a difficult task for any company, and that becomes more difficult when the organization is relatively new since AEW was only launched a few years ago. Furthermore, it's important to consider why Summer Slam 1992 was so successful at the building, there was The Bulldog in his home country in the main event spot against one of the best in-ring workers of all time. It wasn't just simply "hey, the WWF has a pay-per-view in England" but rather there was a main event match that was tailored to sell tickets in the local market.
Sure, AEW has some British stars, but are any of them at the level to sell tickets at a stadium?
Depending on what report you read, Drew McIntyre's status is either up uncertain or he already signed a new WWE contract. If Drew made the jump to AEW, at least for the Wembley show, he would move the needle, but it wouldn't be long before he got lost in the shuffle, very similar to more or less every former WWE star that decided to ink an AEW deal. With the exception of Jon Moxley, who joined the company more or less at its launch, almost every former WWE star that showed up in AEW hasn't been fully utilized. Instead of being a main event talent in 2021, Adam Cole was in the background of a faction. The same could be said for Bryan Danielson. It's unfortunate, but if Drew debuted for AEW, it would be a few months until he ended up in the Miro spot. It shouldn't have taken Tony Khan almost two years to get Adam Cole into a meaningful storyline. When Danielson worked the main event scene against Adam Page, he was arguably the best heel in the business, but American Dragon was minimized as a part of a stable. The fact that CM Punk's initial stint probably did more harm than good for the company also said a lot about Tony's management style. However, the McIntyre discussion is moot because the safe bet is that he already re-signed with WWE.
Nigel McGuinness, who was recently added to the ROH broadcast team, mentioned in a recent interview that if he made a return to the ring, a bout against Bryan Danielson at Wembley would be the place for it. I have to say that I think this was all just hypothetical discussion, and even if Tony Khan considered the bout, given Nigel's age, as well as his history of injuries, it wouldn't be a wise decision to book it. There were reports online about the amount of sign-ups there were for ticket requests, and some diehard AEW fans used that to claim that it was some type of indication that there would be a sell out. As I said, I hope the company draws a major crowd for the stadium so, but the number of sign-ups for tickets is a misleading stat as far as how it can translate to actual ticket sales. Keep in mind, 45,000 sign-ups doesn't automatically mean that those fans will actually buy tickets because that would assume that every person with a sign-up code would be willing to purchase any ticket available. There are fans signed up that wouldn't be willing to spend the hefty amount of money to sit within the first few rows of the ring, the same way that some fans wouldn't want to buy a ticket in the nose bleed section either. The number of sign-ups is an indication that there is demand for an AEW live event in England, but that's not a revelation so if the choice to run the stadium was a wise decision remains to be seen until the actual tickets are sold.
Finally, the fact that the All Out pay-per-view is the week after Wembley, it creates questions about the status of the stadium show. It would be foolish to essentially run a house show in a stadium because it limits the revenue that can be generated from the event, but to attempt to also put the UK event on pay-per-view could negatively impact the buy rate for All Out. Attempting to sell $100 in pay-per-views within the span of a week is not only unrealistic, but also foolish so unless there's some type of package deal offered to purchase both shows, the events a week apart could have a negative impact on at least one, if not both shows. The other aspect that must be taken into consideration is what matches can Tony Khan book within the span of a week that will sell both shows?
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