This weekend, All Elite Wrestling returns to pay-per-view for another co-promoted event with New Japan Pro Wrestling, the second edition of Forbidden Door. It’s rather ironic, considering the current landscape of AEW that two promotions that weren’t on the same page because of The Elite's exit from the Japanese organization prior to the launch of AEW are now working together on a regular basis and will put together a co-promoted pay-per-view for the second year in a row. It proves that if money is there to be made then the smart business move is to mend fences so that cash isn’t left on the table, which is a lesson that CM Punk and The Elite should take note of.
That being said, as much as these co-promoted shows can be considered dream match scenarios, it’s important to keep in mind that it’s just not realistic to put every possible dream match from both rosters on the card. It’s not so much the political side of things in a nefarious sense, but rather the fact that both organizations have their own business and own agendas that they have to take into account with the booking of the event. In many ways, both companies have to be kept strong, while still giving the audience those crossover matches that many look forward to with this type of situation.
With of the nature of the New Japan booking structure, as far as not getting ahead of themselves with announced matches that could potentially reveal the results of prior bouts, it’s not uncommon for cards to be announced much closer to showtime than what is typically seen in the American market. When you take into account that the event is primarily being hosted on American pay-per-view, although I'd guess the New Japan World streaming service will show the matches as well, and the fact that it will held in the North American city of Toronto, you’d expect more of the usual, PPV promotional push for the event.
But, has the Forbidden Door pay-per-view been properly marketed on AEW television?
In many respects, even though there were only four matches announced ahead of this week's Dynamite, the selling point for this event and what the audience expects from it were established several weeks ago.
As mentioned, both organizations have to be kept strong, so you can’t necessarily have top stars from each promotion booked against each other on the entire card since that would necessitate that a few of the biggest stars get defeated, which is fine in a limited capacity, but again, each company has to protect their assets. For example, of the four matches that were announced, the top two matches of Kazuchika Okada/Bryan Danielson and Kenny Omega/Will Ospreay are truly the money matches on the card. While I expect everything else on the show to be at least solid, the decision to purchase this event will be based on the top two contests on the PPV.
The other two announced bouts were set up with video packages, which is completely fine when you take into account, the audience that this show is geared toward. Keep in mind, NJPW has to continue to run their schedule, and it becomes very difficult from simply a geographical stand point for many of the NJPW stars to travel to The United States for a brief appearance on Dynamite if they have scheduled matches in Japan. The logistics almost prevent the traditional build up of a pay-per-view, which is why there were only many New Japan stars on television than usual this week since they had to be in America for the pay-per-view anyway. That's why the previous video packages were fine to set up some of the other contests. Essentially, Sanada, the current IWGP, Heavyweight champion, is booked in a match against Jungle Boy, because it allows one of the main New Japan stars to get a victory over one of the mid-card workers on the AEW roster. That’s not a jab at Jungle Boy, but rather to point out that his status within AEW won't be affected with a defeat on pay-per-view. In a similar fashion, New Japan legend, Hiroshi Tanahashi, who carried the company on his back when the organization was on the brink of collapse several years ago, is at the latter stages of his career. It’s almost comparable to John Cena in terms of Tanahashi‘s popularity because the multi-time IWGP champion is so over with the audience that any defeat in his career won’t affect how over he is with the New Japan fans. So with that in mind, MJF, the current AEW world champion, can get a victory over the aging Japanese legend and theoretically get a boost to his career because of it. The champion of each promotion will get the chance to be showcased on pay-per-view so it’s a booking that makes sense for both organizations.
As mentioned, the intrigue and the biggest selling point of this pay-per-view are the top two matches, even if for completely different reasons.
Will Ospreay and Kenny Omega had an incredible match at this year's Wrestle Kingdom event at the Tokyo Dome and the anticipation for a rematch has built since then. Considering that Omega beat the British grappler for the IWGP US title, I'd expect Ospreay to get the win at Forbidden Door to set up a rubber match in Japan, which makes sense, especially if they can book the trilogy to unfold over the course of the entire year. It maximize the mileage and the importance of each bout in the series instead of several matches between the two getting lost in the shuffle in a relatively short time frame. AEW gets a marquee match to sell their pay-per-view, and New Japan gets a set up for the third bout on one of their major shows so an Ospreay victory works well for both organizations.
Okada vs. Danielson is an absolute dream match between two of the best in-ring workers in the history of the industry. Just the match-up is enough of a selling point, but it was pushed as a major bout with the conclusion of Dynamite when Okada appeared during the main event segment. I would guess that Danielson will eventually work for New Japan, where he actually had matches early in his career, at some point, but as of now, it appears that Okada/Danielson might be a one-off for the Forbidden Door pay-per-view. A match of this caliber would be suitable for the Tokyo Dome, but again, just the match up itself is a draw for the audience.
Finally, there were two multi-man tag matches set up on Dynamite, but those, along with a few matches that were announced on social media, are cannon fodder in the grand scheme of things. The tag matches were booked to get a few more names on the show and have someone from each team be able to take the pin so the stars don't have to be defeated, and the matches added on social media, including CM Punk vs. Satoshi Kojima don't have the build up to make a difference in the buy rate of this PPV. It's important to consider what the target audience is for a co-promoted event. Even with the New Japan expansion into the American market, by nature, this is a niche venture. That's not to say that it won't be successful, but to point out that there's a niche demographic of American fans that follow the New Japan product and since they are diehard enough to follow the Japanese group, watching cards very late at night because of the time difference, they will be the audience that will pay $50 to watch a co-promoted pay-per-view. In some ways, this card already sold itself to that audience with the previously mentioned top two matches since the audience that would be willing to pay to watch Forbidden Door already knows the importance of those bouts.
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