UFC 329

Nearly five years to the day in the same venue, the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, Conor McGregor will step back into the octagon, a return to MMA that some pundits thought might never happen. His opponent, former UFC Featherweight champion, Max Holloway looks to rebound from a unanimous decision loss to Charles Oliveira this past March.

This is actually a rematch from more than a decade ago when McGregor beat Holloway via unanimous decision at a Fight Night event in August of 2013. However, these two talented strikers took very different career paths since the last time they shared the cage.

The brash Irishman skyrocketed in popularity with a meteoric rise in the Ultimate Fighting Championship, serving as the top drawing card for the organization, and management seemingly went out of their way to put the promotional machine behind him. Conor was flashy, charismatic, and he could punch. That combination catered to the lowest common denominator of sports fans so it was very easy for the casual demographic to follow his career. That's not a knock on McGregor either, the fight is business is as much, if not more so, the entertainment business. There's no doubt that Conor drew money, even if the promotional tactics were outlandish on his part, and there were obtuse efforts from UFC management. For example, Conor was shoehorned into being a double champion after he initial beat Chad Mendes for the interim UFC Featherweight title and then defeated the legendary Jose Aldo to claim the undisputed belt for the unification bout in 2015. A year later, despite not competing in the 155 LBS division before, Conor was granted a title shot against Eddie Alvarez, winning via TKO in the second round. The fact that he split a pair of contests against Nate Diaz, losing via submission before he avenged the defeat with a majority decision, earlier in the year was conveniently overlooked.

 Again, the fight business is still the entertainment business, and the visual of Conor posing with both titles on top of the octagon was a way to draw more money down the road.

The problem is, Conor took all that promotional hype from the UFC and went to boxing to fight Floyd Mayweather in a 10-round circus for $100 million. It was the ultimate money grab, and it was clear that Floyd allowed the MMA fighter to survive a few extra rounds before the referee stopped the contest about a minute into the last round. Despite how blatant of a sideshow that it was, you can't argue with results, as the spectacle become the second-highest selling pay-per-view with more than 4.3 million buys, just behind the top spot of the Mayweather/Pacquiao super fight that garnered an estimated 4.6 million buys.

With Conor away from the UFC to make exponentially more cash as a boxer, the featherweight and lightweight divisions were put on ice, leaving many competitors in that weight class without the chance to make a name for themselves. Eventually, Conor was stripped of the featherweight and lightweight titles in 2016 and 2018 respectively because he didn't defend them.

After two years away from MMA, Conor returned to the UFC in late-2018 for the highly-anticipated grudge match with  Khabib Nurmagomedov. Khabib retained the lightweight belt after he choked McGregor out in the fourth round of the one-sided bout. The infamous post-fight brawl between the corners followed it. Conor was away for more than a year before he knocked out a tough, but aging Donald Cerrone in just 40 seconds in the first round, giving the impression that he was back to top form. A year later, he was defeated by Dustin Poirier in the second round before their rematch six months later.

It was in July of 2021 when Conor threw a leg kick in the closing moments of the opening round, snapping his leg, and as he collapsed to the canvas, the bout was  stopped immediately. This is the same tibia and fibula injury that altered the careers of both former middleweight king, Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman. The gruesome injury prompted speculation about Conor's future in the sport, especially given the track record of the other fighters that tried to make a comeback from it previously.

Unfortunately, Conor McGregor made news outside of MMA for all the wrong reasons within the past five years. You know it's not a good thing when someone as high profile as he is got into enough legal trouble that all the details of each incident would be too lengthy to discuss in one article. The most serious of the legal troubles was the 2024 court case that found him liable for the sexual assault of a female in 2018 in his native country of Ireland. Criminal charges weren't filed because the prosecution cited lack of evidence. When the victim won the civil case and was awarded $250,000, McGregor appealed, but the court still ruled in favor of the victim. There was another lawsuit filed against him in early-2025, stemming from an alleged sexual assault at an NBA finals game in 2023, but it was dismissed last year.

The Dublin decision that was upheld by the court did major damage to his reputation in his home country, as he lost numerous sponsorships and endorsements, but that negative publicity didn't really translate to his status in the United States. It was no coincidence that his return to the UFC was announced during the MVP MMA event on Netflix, but that probably isn't the only reason that McGregor finally accepted a number for the comeback to the organization. As we know, Conor lives a very lavish lifestyle to keep up his image, and he lost a lot of his outside revenue because of the negative publicity of the sexual assault case so after five years away, he can always use another big payday. That's not to say that he's broke, but obviously, he can't leave major money on the table either.

For Max Holloway, he took a different direction since he fought McGregor in 2013. Holloway had to grind his way through the featherweight division, winning the belt in 2017. Sure, he eventually lost the championship and failed to regain it when he got a few title shots against different opponents, but he always fought top competition. With a record of 27-9. Holloway's championship pursuit was a mixed bag, but he was always a solid contender against the best of the division. Furthermore, and this might be the bigger point, specifically in this bout against McGregor this weekend, Holloway always provided entertaining fights. If he won or lost was almost secondary because the fans knew they were going to get their money's worth when he was on the card.

The UFC under card is decent, with the popular Paddy Pimblett in the co-main event spot, but for all intents and purposes, this is going to sell based on the return of Conor McGregor. Reportedly, tickets sold out in minutes when they weren't on sale at the end of May, and there are staggering prices on the secondary market for the event. Keep in mind, Paramount paid a massive amount of money for the rights to the UFC pay-per-views so this could be a key event for their subscription service.

Clearly, despite the negative press, there's still a demand for Conor McGregor in America, if not in Dublin. The question is, what Conor McGregor will the public get when he steps into the cage this weekend after such an extended hiatus?

Make no mistake about it, Max Holloway isn't a tomato can that will be brought in to give Conor a tune-up fight so to speak. Holloway is more well-rounded and has better cardio than the former two-division champion. The issue is, Conor was one-dimensional when he was five years younger before he had to recover from such a devastating injury. Conor can punch, and he found a lot of success with that philosophy, but there's a reason that four of his six career loses were via submission. Yes, Holloway is willing to stand and trade punches, which is partially why he was chosen as the opponent, but there's no doubt that he will have the grappling advantage if the fight goes to the ground.

The determining factor in this fight will simple, has Conor fully recovered from the leg injury to the point that he can return to his original form as a dangerous striker? Will he have the same movement that he had five years ago to set up the sharp strikes that won him championships prior to this? Quite simply, I'd guess the answer is no, not necessarily because McGregor hasn't taken the steps to prepare for a comeback, but rather the history of the injury itself. The harsh reality is that neither the previously mentioned Anderson Silva or Chris Weidman were the same fighters after they suffered the same injury. Silva had one victory in his last seven fights in the UFC. Weidman fought three times after he returned from the broken leg, winning one of those bouts before he retired. McGregor's best chance is going to be in the opening round so he will have one, or at best, two rounds to secure the victory. If it goes any further than that, Holloway will be able to get the victory after Conor's cardio declines, which is why I will pick Max Holloway to get the win. It's going to be very interesting to see what happens because the result of this fight could be pivotal in the career of Conor McGregor in the future.